How Much Should The Twins Offer Bryce Harper?

The White Sox are reported to be mightily trying to sign Bryce Harper and/or Manny Machado, a totally terrifying and disgusting prospect.  To avoid such a horrendous outcome the Twins must protect the honor of the AL Central with an offer of their own. How much should that offer be? Let’s get to figuring.

Total 2018 MLB player payroll – $3,739,020,881

Total MLB regular season games – 2,430 (15 x 162)

3,739,020,881  / 2,430 = 1,538,691.720576132 – player cost per game both teams

1,538,691.720576132 / 2 = 769,345.860288066 player cost per game each team

2018 average player salary – $4,428,469

2018 mean player salary – $1,713,088

Bryce Harper’s projected 2019 WAR – 4.8

If two teams both of which had a net WAR of 0 played each other 162 times they should, baring good / bad luck, each win 81 games. If one of those two teams enjoyed Bryce Harper’s positive 4.8 WAR you would expect them to win the series by either a 85 – 77 or 86 – 76 margin. How much is that worth?

Let’s start with 4.8 x 769,345.860288066 = 3,692,860.129382717 / year?

However, we do need to consider that replacement level AAAA guys don’t cost nothing. The 2018 MLB min was $545,000. We’ll add that in.

3,692,860.129382717  + 545,000 = 4,237,860.129382717 / year. Looks like Bryce is going to be a rich man. But we have to remember that we’re dealing with Scott Borras here and he’s going to insist on a cost of living adjustment as the contract goes forward. We’ll offer 10% per year as the contract goes forward. And yes Bryce you are going to get your 10 year dream deal.

Year one

4,237,860.129382717 x .10 = 423,786.0129382717

4,237,860.129382717 + 423,786.0129382717 = $4,661,646.142320989

Year two (same calculation – compounding interest – you betcha!)


Year three – $5,640,591.832208397

Year four – $6,204,651.015429237

Year five – $6,825,116.116972161

Year six – $7,507,627.728669377

Year seven – $8,258,390.501536315

Year eight – $9,084,229.551689946

Year nine – $9,992,652.506858941

Year ten – $10,991,917.75754484

That brings us to a total contract value of $74,294,633.91. Not too shabby young man.

But we’re not done yet! Since we’re talking about going from 81 – 81 to at least 85 – 77  which might buy us another infuriating wild card loss to the Yankees and since cabin fever is already setting in we’re going to get stupid and throw in another 25%.


Yeah I know we should really try to lay off the lutefisk and in that spirit we do need a couple of things from you. Since father time is unbeaten we need a five million dollar buyout in year eight, a two and a half million dollar buyout in year nine and a one million dollar buyout in year ten. But you can include up to 15 teams in your no trade clause as long as one of them is the White Sox.



3 thoughts on “How Much Should The Twins Offer Bryce Harper?

  1. You’d have to quadruple the size of the stadium, force everyone to attend the games at gunpoint, and throw in a ten year supply of thermal underwear. I think he’s looking elsewhere.

    Liked by 1 person

  2. On the burner, the Mets just agreed to a two year deal with Wilson Ramos, which means they’ve cut bait on J T Realmuto. The Barves walked away from a deal earlier this week. I’d now be surprised if anyone pulled the trigger on a Realmuto trade before Grandal signs somewhere.
    Looks like it’s “Call Jeter’s Bluff” time.The Feesh are now on the verge of pricing themselves out of the Realmuto market altogether for this season. They say they’d just as soon carry him but they know he’s going to walk away in two years, and now they risk his having a slow season that would trash his market next year.


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