North Star A Rising

Perhaps the best single metric to predict how many games a team is going to win is their runs scored runs allowed differential.


Twins: runs scored 815 runs allowed 788

Indians: runs scored 818 runs allowed 564

Of course the big difference in runs allowed is mostly due to the Twins 2017 rotation of Santana, Berrios, Poo Poo 1, Poo Poo 2, Poo Poo 3. This year things start different.

Team defense

I don’t know much about the defensive abilities of the Indians starting position players, but the fastest team in baseball bows it’s head to no one. The Twins have plus defense at the outfield corners and plus plus defense in center. Mauer should have won a gold glove provides plus defense at first, Did win a gold glove Dozier provides plus defense at second. According to his DWAR Polanco turned in plus defense at short as did Castro at catcher.

Advantage Twins

Team offense

Last year the Twins scored 815 runs, the Indians 818, but bear in mind that the Twins scored more runs than any team in the American League in the second half of the season. They also added to the lineup a good power hitting DH – 1st baseman in Logan Morrison.

Advantage Twins

Starting pitching

2017 ERA’s for the Indians projected 2018 rotation

C Kluber        2.25

C Carrasco     3.29

T Bauer           4.19

D Salazar         4.28

J Tomlin           4.98

2017 ERA’s for the Twins projected 2018 rotation

E Santana           3.28

L Lynn                 3.43

J Berrios               3.89

J Odorizzo            4.14

K Gibson               5.07       Second half 3.76

The Indian starters ERA average is 3.798. The Twins is 3.926. If Gibson’s second half ERA is used instead of his season one that comes down to 3.7.

The Indians have an elite ace, a very nice # 2 starter, a serviceable #3, and average #s 4 and 5. The Twins do not have an elite ace (unless Berrios blossoms) but do basically have five 2 – 3 ish starters. Which is better? I’m guessing that the bullpen coach would take the latter.

Advantage: Arguable.


The Indians definitely have the advantage here, but the Twins have closed the gap. Basically they added Rodney, Duke and Addison while losing nobody except Kinsler at the trade deadline.

Last year the Twins sold at the trade deadline. What happens this year if they buy?


VVVRRROOM VVRRROOOM!!! We got us a race in the AL Central




10 thoughts on “North Star A Rising

  1. I would love to see the Indians get some serious competition in the Central, because the Astros matched up very badly against their highly lefty lineup last year. And I always like to see long-suffering fans (except Mets fans, I have some scruples) rewarded. So go, Twins!

    Of course, I should be careful what I wish for. The Twins may be the ones who end up knocking the Astros out of the playoffs.

    An old truism of sports playoffs. You can play the team you fear, or you can play the team that beat them.


    • Aside from the fact they play that degenerative disease masquerading as baseball called designatedhitterball, the Indians screwed over the city of Homestead, just south of Macondo, in 1992.

      Homestead spent a fortune building the Tribe a minor league baseball complex which was damaged just before it was completed by Hurricane Andrew, so the team exercised an option in its deal with the city and moved to another complex in central Florida. It was all legal but it wasn’t necessary. This was a disaster for a small city that had really extended itself for that team, and now found itself facing not only the abandonment of their most expensive civic project ever but also the ruin left by Andrew.

      I was delighted to see them blow the playoffs and they can finish just short of the gold ring every season as far as I’m concerned.
      Besides, Cleveland is boring.. How boring? I spent a day there once and I was still bored three days later.


        • The race track has been a big boost for the local economy there, though if they could attract more races (and utilize the ballpark more fully) there could still be a silver lining to the story. What with so many local fans shrugging orf and turning their backs on the Feesh in the wake of jeter & Company’s latest gutting of the team, this would be a perfect time to initiate baseball activities to save the disenchanted that long ride into town.

          Liked by 1 person

  2. Good news and bad news. The bad news is the passing of the great physicist Stephen Hawking, who managed to live to 76 with ALS and maintain the intellectual clarity that permitted his genius to flourish regardless. A couple of notes on his passing: Hawking was twice ticketed for speeding. Yep, you heard right. He drove his motorized wheelchair so fast and recklessly that Cambridge cops caught him twice. Of course, they couldn’t take away his driver’s license for it. Second story: only a few months ago on his birthday an interviewer asked him what cosmic mysteries he still wanted to consider. “Women,” he replied. “I don’t understand them at all.”

    The good news: western Pennsylvania Republicrat Connor Lamb edged out Reslugnican Jabba the Hutt clone Rick Saccone, an archetypal right wing knuckledragging Neandtertal (“They hate God,” he said of his opponents – which reminds me of Michael Bryant’s explanation of Peter O’Tool’s madness in The Ruling Class: “To love God is to love the thirteenth earl.” Joseph Campbell called Siccone’s siccness “mythic inflation,” which he defined as “God swallowed up in ego”). The pundits are calling it a verdict on Trump, but frankly, I think it’s just because Lamb was so much better looking than his loathsome opponent.

    Liked by 1 person

    • The good news is that Lance Lynn in his first outing with the Twins pitched 3 hitless innings with 5 strikeouts.

      Rick Saccone and his ilk would fit right in with an updated ‘The Golden Bough’, written 5 hundred (or maybe just 5 or 50) years from now, as a footnote.


      • Not sure why he never got a Nobel. It tends to reward experimental physics or interpretations thereof, which might be a partial explanation.

        But I would have thought the description of Hawking Radiation would have done it for him.


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