I was starting to do my recap when I noticed the Old Gator’s posting about Jose Fernandez. His numbers are fairly mediocre. Uh, Fernandez’s. I don’t know anything about Old Gator’s. I started thinking, quite a few pitchers we normally associate as aces are starting 2016 having a rough year. Fernandez only one of several. Who broke the pitchers? This looks like the work of a nefarious, dastardly villain, the likes of which we haven’t seen…
Look at Matt Harvey for example. Roll the video tape.
(Warning, warning, warning. Small sample size alert! Size matters. Sorry.)
In 2015, 27 year old RHP Harvey was the owner of 2.71 ERA in 189.1 innings pitched, with an ERA+ of 136, a WHIP of 1.019, FIP 3.05, K/9 8.9, and a K/BB 5.08. Fastball avg 95.9 mph. BABIP .285. Contrast that to 2016 where in 34 IP, he is carrying an ERA of 4.76, ERA+ 83, WHIP 1.559, FIP 3.79, K/9 6.6, and K/BB 2.27. FB avg 94.1 mph. BABIP .355. Gotham has a problem?
Leftie David Price is another broken ace. Some will say something along the lines, “Oh, he signed his big contract, of course he will be no good” to which I saw phooey. I never say phooey. I don’t where that came from. This pitcher is a competitor; he wants the ball. In 2015, playing for the Tigers and Blue Jays, 30 year old Price did the following in 220 IP: 2.45 ERA/1.08 WHIP/FIP 2.82. K/9 9.19, K/BB 4.79, BABIP .304 (career .298). FB avg 94.2 mph. In 2016, this is his line: 6.14 ERA/1.28 WHIP/FIP 3.01. K/9 12.03, K/BB 5.44, BABIP .385 FB avg 92. Where things get interesting–look at that K/9 ratio. The FIP is pretty good too. It’s better than Harvey’s in 2015, which we can all agree was a pretty good year. I think Price might have a better year in store up ahead.
My team’s very own Chris Archer, although to be fair, the beginning of his “issue” may have started late last year, although the numbers don’t reflect it when you look at it in a calendar year. Numbers can be used to manipulate? Who knew! 2015 stats:
212 IP, 3.23 ERA/1.14 WHIP/FIP 2.96. K/9 10.70, K/BB 3.82, FB 95.2, BABIP .311. His 2016 line: 32.1 IP, 5.01 ERA, 1.58 WHIP, FIP 4.75 (OH LORD HELP US)… okay, I’m going to move along. You get the idea. He sucks this year, except for one performance.
So, I need to get going to work on the recap, but including Jose Fernandez, here are 4 pitchers we normally associate with excellence who are just flat out poopy-butts this year. Dallas Keuchel is another one I was thinking about too, but I need to get going, those recaps don’t write themselves.
Is this an epidemic? Normal variation? What other pitchers did I miss? Any theories you might have? What villain did this? Did Arrieta steal all the goodness for himself?